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Investor Activity in Bitcoin Is ‘Fizzing Out’ As Market Undergoes A Black Swan Event

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On-chain analyst Willy Woo says his call of “no chance this a top” when Bitcoin was just below $10k was “totally wrong”
In the short term, the market not looking good but long term looks solid
Earlier last month, Bitcoin broke above $10,000 that on-chain analyst Willy Woo said was the “real deal”. “Fundamental investment activity is backing this $10k breakout,” said Woo at that time.

However, as we saw in the past few weeks, bitcoin has been acting like a risky asset following the stock market, going from above $10,500 in mid-February to $7,630 on Monday.

In his latest update, Woo shared that he was “totally wrong” on his call of “no chance this a top” when Bitcoin was just below $10k. “The market right now, crypto and traditional, is undergoing a black swan,” said Woo.

A black swan is an unpredictable event that goes beyond what is normally expected and has potentially severe consequences.

Long term investor activity looking “solid”

We made a good start of 2020, with everything surging only to come to a crashing halt as coronavirus hit the market. This led to the biggest drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the 2008 financial crisis. Over the weekend, the oil price war started by Saudi Arabia and Russia not only lead the oil prices to plunge but the global markets to undergo extreme sell-off.

Bitcoin wasn’t left unaffected either. Macro events hurt the digital asset hard as it dropped more than 27% in less than a month, however, it wasn’t nowhere near the carnage the global markets saw.

Today, bitcoin is yet again moving up just like the stock market on the hopes of stimulus from the central banks. The crypt asset is trading above $8,000, up nearly 4%. Woo said,

“THIS IS A CHART OF ON-CHAIN “INVESTOR ACTIVITY” RIGHT NOW. LONG TERM LOOKS SOLID. SHORT TERM IS VERY WEIRD, NORMALLY IT’S SMOOTH OSCILLATIONS, NOT ANYMORE, IT’S LIKE SOMETHING HIT IT (COVID19?), IT’S FIZZING OUT. WAITING FOR THIS TO REVERSE BEFORE WE PUT IN A BOTTOM. MAYBE SOON.”
The positive movement in the bitcoin price also resulted in growth in the network. In the last 24 hours, as the BTC price increased, so did the addresses. Since March 4th, they have been declining but on March 9th, recorded an uptick, as per crypto data provider IntoTheBlock.

Daily Active Addresses
Source: @IntoTheBlock
During this time, 822 thousand addresses were active while 421.8 thousand new addresses were created. Network Net Growth has been 25.7 thousand new addresses. However, this jump in price saw 405.58 thousand addresses going to zero, that is, no balance in BTC.
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