01-20-2020, 02:49 AM
Yet in recursive logic, demand could be affected by the halving narrative. The widely held expectation that it will influence the price could stimulate demand for bitcoin as an investment asset, which will influence its price, especially as new investors – attracted by the supply models and historical correlation – enter the sector.
And asymmetric risk comes into the picture: the chance that the models are wrong and I lose everything will have less of an impact on my portfolio than the possibility the models are right and I make a 500% return.
So, even if the supply-driven models are trying to re-write traditional investing principles, it doesn’t mean that we won’t see a price rally.
If that happens, the narrative will coalesce around the confirmation that the supply-based models were right, even if they weren’t the cause. We could end up with the head-spinning cycle of narrative influencing price, and price influencing narrative.
And asymmetric risk comes into the picture: the chance that the models are wrong and I lose everything will have less of an impact on my portfolio than the possibility the models are right and I make a 500% return.
So, even if the supply-driven models are trying to re-write traditional investing principles, it doesn’t mean that we won’t see a price rally.
If that happens, the narrative will coalesce around the confirmation that the supply-based models were right, even if they weren’t the cause. We could end up with the head-spinning cycle of narrative influencing price, and price influencing narrative.