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Trends in GBTC Premium Offer Limited Predictive Value

After reaching new depths below the 8k level near the end of September, market valuations in BTC/USD have been largely trendless.  Over the last month, bitcoin has been caught in a narrowing price range that has made it difficult for quantitative traders to plot the next trend direction for the crypto pair.  Can price correlations between BTC and the GBTC offer some predictive value? One analyst says this is unlikely.

On September 24th, major selling pressure in BTC/USD sent valuations to new lows at $7,988.  For bitcoin bulls, this move marked an ominous break of key psychological support levels and the effect it’s had on sentiment has left markets essentially directionless.  However, historical trends suggest that these types of downside corrections can often work as a precursor to developing price rallies and quant traders seem to be looking for external correlations as a way to verify the validity of possible upside projections in the BTC/USD valuation. 
However, one analyst suggests that expected price correlations between bitcoin price and the $GBTC premium carry little predictive value and that correlation with lagged premiums is likely to fail traders which use the data to project future price moves in the BTC/USD valuation.  As macro analyst Alex Kruger (@kreugermacro) explains:

Trends in GBTC Premium Offer Limited Predictive Value