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Meltem Demirors
✔ @Melt_Dem
 · Dec 24, 2019
1/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving.
 for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying. 
 Meltem Demirors
✔ @Melt_Dem
2/ a topic that’s been studied in other commodities markets is how pricing is set. bitcoin is, arguably, a digital commodity.
 normally, producers set the price of a commodity (classic S = D = P from Econ 101)

when derivatives take off, producers lose the right to set prices. 
 Demirors also posted a chart of oil as an example wherein, for the last 20 years, the commodity was chiefly driven by speculation on Brent crude futures. Her last point was that Bitcoin becoming more of an investable asset would push it away from its real value. Meltem Demirors
✔ @Melt_Dem
 · Dec 24, 2019
Replying to @Melt_Dem
4/ there is a new market developing for bitcoin - one driven by speculative trading and enabled by derivatives.@BitMEXdotcom was the first to crack this market. then the 10,000 lb gorilla @CMEGroup got in the game. now there are hundreds of new firms popping up. 
 5/ the more bitcoin becomes an investable asset, the more it’s price becomes decoupled from its value and its supply and demand.

it becomes yet another backwater in the great game of global speculation. it becomes “financialized. it becomes correlated to macro markets.

174
1:07 PM - Dec 24, 2019
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 The end of mining?

If what Demirors is saying is true, then that could spell trouble for BTC miners. A report by LongHash could vouch for Demirors' prediction that the halving will not boost Bitcoin's prices, but the blockchain data and news platform doesn't echo similar points. Instead, LongHash stated that there is no evidence that the 2012 halving caused the 2013 rally, and the 2017 bull run wasn't caused by the 2016 halving but by the ICO boom.

If both predictions become true and prices stay the same -- or worse, lower -- then miners would have to depend on transaction fees to sustain operations further into the future as Bitcoin rewards keep slimming once every four years. The whole industry is already in pain, according to LongHash, and no rally would force smaller miners to tap out.
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